如何看待近期债券市场行情︱重阳问答

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant volatility since July, with rising yields and a clear downward trend, influenced by the upward movement in equity and commodity markets [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The 10-year government bond yield has risen over 5 basis points, while the 30-year yield has increased by more than 8 basis points, surpassing 1.9% [1] - The bond market adjustment is attributed to the strong performance of equity and commodity markets, driven by supportive fiscal and monetary policies [1] - The yield spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds remains at a historical low of 20 basis points, indicating a crowded and fragile trading structure [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic fundamentals of the bond market remain stable, with structural issues in the Chinese economy still needing resolution [2] - The real estate market is stabilizing, but the overall economic growth rate is declining, suggesting a prolonged period of asset scarcity [2] - The expectation of continued accommodative monetary policy, including potential rate cuts, supports the bond market's fundamentals [2] Group 3: Investment Considerations - The dividend yield of the CSI All Share Index has dropped to around 2%, narrowing the gap with the 10-year government bond yield, which enhances the attractiveness of bonds [2] - The estimated reasonable pricing for the 10-year government bond is between 1.8% and 1.9%, based on the anticipated spread with policy rates [2] - A breakthrough above the 1.9% yield level may require effective demand-side stimulus policies to be implemented [2]