Core Viewpoint - Tianfeng Securities has revised down the revenue and net profit forecasts for Green Leaf Pharmaceutical for 2025 to 2026 due to intense market competition and centralized procurement impacts, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The revenue forecast for Green Leaf Pharmaceutical has been adjusted from 85.29 billion and 102.79 billion to 66.38 billion and 74.47 billion for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with an expected revenue of 81.62 billion for 2027 [1] - The net profit forecast has been revised down from 13.73 billion and 16.78 billion to 6.72 billion and 8.31 billion for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with an expected net profit of 9.16 billion for 2027 [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 31.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.13 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.3% [1] Group 2: Business Focus and Product Development - The company is focusing on two major areas: CNS (Central Nervous System) and oncology, with multiple new products beginning commercialization and an increasing sales proportion of new products (up 32% year-on-year) [1] - In the oncology treatment sector, revenue reached 12.95 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, while CNS treatment revenue was 8.68 billion, up 5.4%. Cardiovascular treatment revenue was 6.93 billion, down 9.2%, and metabolic treatment revenue was 1.80 billion, down 7.9% [1] Group 3: New Product Commercialization - The company has successfully commercialized two major products in the CNS field, with Ruxinlin being the first domestically developed antidepressant included in the 2024 medical insurance directory, showing over 4 times year-on-year sales growth [2] - ERZOFRI, a product for treating schizophrenia, entered the U.S. market in April 2025, being the first of its kind developed by a Chinese company with independent intellectual property rights [2] - ERZOFRI has a long patent period until 2039 and is currently in a favorable competitive landscape with only two companies in the market [2] Group 4: Innovation Pipeline - The company has a rich pipeline of innovative drugs in development, actively seeking business development collaborations with multinational corporations [3] - LY03017, aimed at treating Parkinson's disease psychosis and Alzheimer's disease psychosis, is expected to complete Phase I clinical trials in China by the end of 2025, with IND approval anticipated in Q3 2025 [3] - Other innovative drugs, including LY03015 for tardive dyskinesia and Huntington's disease, are in Phase II clinical trials, with data expected in the first half of 2026 [3]
天风证券:维持绿叶制药(02186)“买入”评级 在研管线具备差异化优势