智通财经网·2025-09-29 06:05Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Alibaba Group (09988) and slightly raises revenue and profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026-2028, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on cloud revenue growth [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Alibaba for fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028 are estimated at 1,066.1 billion, 1,188.8 billion, and 1,301.4 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be 126.7 billion, 167.2 billion, and 196.0 billion yuan [1] Group 2: AI Development and Strategy - Alibaba's CEO outlines three stages of AI development: intelligent emergence, autonomous action, and self-iteration, predicting that AI will evolve towards super artificial intelligence (ASI) [1] - The company positions Alibaba Cloud as a full-stack AI service provider, emphasizing the importance of AI as a commodity that will replace energy in the future [1] - Alibaba plans to continuously invest in AI infrastructure, with a projected tenfold increase in global data center energy consumption by 2032 compared to 2022 [1] Group 3: Product Launches and Global Expansion - At the Cloud Summit, Alibaba introduced several new models, including Qwen3-Max, which ranks third globally, and the next-generation Qwen model architecture, Qwen3-Next [2] - The company showcased its full-stack AI technology capabilities, covering everything from underlying chips to AI platforms and model training services [2] - Alibaba announced an acceleration of its overseas expansion plan, with the first data centers to be established in Brazil, France, and the Netherlands, and further business expansion in five other countries outside China [2] Group 4: Market Position and Profitability - The commitment to achieving ASI and the anticipated increase in energy consumption indicate sustained capital expenditure (CAPEX), which will open up growth opportunities in AI-related revenues [2] - The comprehensive self-developed model capabilities and the increase in overseas market share are expected to enhance Alibaba Cloud's market share and improve profit margins in the long term [2]