政府停摆风险与非农数据齐袭，关键事件周美元开局疲软

Core Points - The US dollar has experienced a decline at the start of a week filled with key events, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index dropping 0.2% on Monday, marking two consecutive days of decline [1] - The risk of a US government shutdown is increasing, with both parties maintaining a hardline stance and unwilling to compromise [1] - Key US economic data will be released this week, culminating in the monthly non-farm payroll report on Friday [1] - The Japanese yen is leading gains against the US dollar, with Japan set to release economic data and hold central bank official speeches, alongside the ruling party's election of new leadership on Saturday [1] - Traders are closely monitoring these developments for their potential impact on market expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts or Bank of Japan rate hikes, which would influence the movements of both the dollar and yen [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index had previously hit its lowest level since 2022 two weeks ago but has since rebounded [1] Market Insights - According to Robert Subramaniam, head of global market research at Nomura Singapore, the dollar's weakness during Asian trading hours is partly due to the high risk of a US government shutdown later this week [3] - The recent rebound of the dollar is attributed to investors lowering their expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the path ahead for policymakers is likely to be challenging due to risks in the labor market and inflation outlook, leading to reduced bets on policy easing [3]