降息预期+避险，贵金属再度拉涨！金价突破3800美元、银价冲上47美元

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals continue to rise sharply due to sustained investment demand, heightened risk aversion from the impending U.S. government shutdown, and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence, with gold prices surpassing $3,800 and silver breaking the $47 mark [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold and silver prices have seen significant increases, with silver rising approximately 5% over two trading days, reaching over $47 per ounce [2]. - Platinum has also experienced a surge, gaining about 10% in the last three trading days and surpassing $1,600 per ounce [3]. - The recent market dynamics indicate a strong demand for precious metals, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which currently stands at a 90% probability for October [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The risk of a U.S. government shutdown is increasing as the fiscal year ends, with certain federal agencies facing funding shortages, which could further drive gold prices up [3][4]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's personnel and its independence is contributing to market risk aversion, prompting investors to seek refuge in precious metals [4]. - Analysts suggest that the traditional stock-bond portfolio is becoming less effective in the face of rising inflation and economic uncertainty, leading to increased allocations in commodities, particularly gold [4]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Despite the bullish momentum in precious metals, analysts caution that profit-taking may occur following the release of key global economic indicators [5][6]. - Speculative funds have reduced their net long positions in gold futures by 1% as of September 23, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [6]. - The upcoming national holidays may lead to typical position adjustments, which could increase short-term volatility in gold and silver prices [6].