下游实际需求增速较为积极 短期碳酸锂期价坚挺

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices fluctuating around 73,100 to 74,720 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.34% increase. However, the future market dynamics depend on the sustainability of demand post the "golden September and silver October" peak season [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate industry is undergoing a continuous destocking phase, driven by a robust demand growth that outpaces supply. This destocking is viewed as a temporary adjustment rather than a signal of industry recovery [1]. - Weekly inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased to 136,800 tons, with the destocking rate slowing for three consecutive weeks. The downstream sector's pre-holiday stockpiling is nearing completion, leading to a stable basis with a price differential of -255 yuan/ton [2]. - The structural change in the market, with upstream destocking and proactive downstream restocking, indicates a positive growth rate in actual demand from downstream enterprises [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The demand side is expected to remain strong, particularly in consumer electronics and energy storage sectors, with the domestic energy storage market showing unexpected growth due to favorable capacity electricity price compensation [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have outlined a plan to accelerate the approval and review processes for mineral resource development projects, which may enhance the precision and effectiveness of investments in lithium carbonate projects [2]. - As October approaches, potential disruptions in supply due to mining companies entering the license renewal process may exert pressure on lithium carbonate futures prices, leading to a possible return to a more relaxed supply expectation [2].