港口库存处于超高水平 预计甲醇短期内震荡偏弱

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The methanol market in China is experiencing high import levels despite a slight decrease in September, with government measures aimed at controlling production capacity to prevent oversupply risks [1][2]. Group 1: Import and Market Dynamics - In September, China's methanol import volume is estimated at 1.6384 million tons, a decrease of 121,400 tons from the previous month, representing a decline of 6.9% [1]. - The early morning trading in Jiangsu Taicang showed spot prices for methanol ranging from 2,245 to 2,255 RMB/ton, with basis negotiations around -100 to -105 RMB/ton [1]. Group 2: Government Regulations - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with six other departments, issued a notice on the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)", emphasizing strict control over new refining capacity and careful determination of new ethylene and paraxylene production scales to mitigate the risk of oversupply in the coal-to-methanol sector [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Forecasts - Ningzheng Futures reports that domestic methanol production remains high, with downstream demand recovering, but overall market sentiment is weak, leading to a forecast of short-term price fluctuations with support around 2,350 RMB/ton [2]. - Hualian Futures indicates that while production rates and import volumes remain high, traditional demand is under pressure, and port inventories are at elevated levels, suggesting continued downward pressure on methanol prices [2].