从“让美国石油再次伟大”到页岩黄昏 力挺MAGA的美国油气巨头们怒了：特朗普政策太混乱！

Core Insights - The sentiment among executives in the U.S. oil and gas industry is increasingly pessimistic regarding the future of traditional energy, largely due to the chaotic trade policies and frequent regulatory changes under the Trump administration [1][2] - While U.S. oil production has reached new highs, the industry is not experiencing the robust expansion promised by Trump, with executives expressing concerns over profitability and investment willingness [1][3] - The U.S. shale oil sector is reportedly in a state of decline, with executives indicating that the industry has been hollowed out by political hostility and economic ignorance [3] Industry Sentiment - A survey conducted by the Dallas Federal Reserve from September 10 to 18 covered 139 oil and gas executives, revealing a significant decline in sentiment regarding the shale oil business [3] - Executives predict that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will be lower than previously expected, forecasting around $63 per barrel by 2025, down from earlier predictions of $68 [4] Cost and Policy Challenges - Executives have cited increased costs due to high tariffs on steel and aluminum, which have raised the costs of OCTG (oil country tubular goods) and other essential equipment [2] - The rapid and unpredictable changes in regulatory policies under the Trump administration have created an environment of uncertainty, leading to decreased investment willingness among executives [2] Market Dynamics - The return of Kurdish oil exports is expected to exacerbate supply surplus concerns, potentially leading to a downward trajectory for Brent crude prices [5][8] - Goldman Sachs has projected that global oil supply will exceed demand significantly, with Brent crude prices potentially falling below $50 per barrel by 2026 due to oversupply [8][9] Recent Price Movements - As of last week, WTI crude oil prices rose by 5.3% to $65.72 per barrel, marking the largest weekly increase since June [7] - Energy sector ETFs have also seen a rise, although they have underperformed compared to the S&P 500 index this year [7]