S&P 500 Enters 'Historically' Strong Fourth Quarter, But October's Volatility Warning Has Investors Nervous - SPDR S&P 500 (ARCA:SPY)

Core Insights - The S&P 500 is entering its historically strongest season, but current market conditions indicate potential short-term risks for investors [1][3] - The fourth quarter has historically provided an average return of 4.2%, outperforming all other quarters, with the index finishing higher 80% of the time [2][5] - However, strong year-to-date performance often leads to a flat or negative October, with an average return of -0.3% when the index is up more than 10% year-to-date by the end of September [3][4] Market Performance Analysis - In years when the S&P 500 has exceeded a 10% gain by the end of September, October's performance has been unpredictable, with only a 50% chance of being positive [4][5] - Despite potential October headwinds, if the S&P 500 reaches a new 52-week high in September, the median return for the fourth quarter has been 5.3%, with a 90.9% likelihood of finishing higher [5] Price Action - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose 0.57% to $661.82, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) increased by 0.41% to $595.97 [6] - The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) also saw a rise of 0.62% to $462.28, with futures for major indices trading higher in premarket [7]