长城基金汪立：步入震荡区间，静待政策窗口期

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant decline in trading volume, with the average daily trading volume of the Wind All A index dropping to 2.31 trillion from 2.52 trillion [1] - The market showed a mixed performance across sectors, with power equipment (3.86%), non-ferrous metals (3.52%), and electronics (3.51%) performing relatively well, while retail (-4.32%), comprehensive (-4.61%), and social services (-5.92%) sectors lagged [1] Group 2 - In August, the profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China saw a year-on-year increase, primarily due to a low base effect, with cumulative profit growth for January to August at 0.9%, recovering from -1.7% in July [2] - The upstream industries showed overall improvement, particularly in the non-ferrous sector, while the midstream sectors like general and electronic equipment experienced a decline in profit growth [2] - The outlook for September indicates a similar performance to August, with moderate results in exports, infrastructure, and production, while consumption showed signs of weakening [2] Group 3 - Recent strong economic data from the U.S. has tempered expectations for interest rate cuts, with analysts raising growth forecasts for the U.S. economy for 2025 to 2026 [3] - Upcoming U.S. employment data, PMI, and trade figures are anticipated to influence the Federal Open Market Committee's decisions in October [3] Group 4 - The market is currently in a period of fluctuation, influenced by recent government briefings on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and future policy directions, leading to some investors opting to take profits [4] - Despite short-term volatility, the overall market trend for the fourth quarter remains positive, with a focus on technological advancements and improved shareholder returns [4] - The rapid growth of new productivity, particularly in AI, is expected to sustain structural market trends in A-shares [4] Group 5 - As the policy window in mid-October approaches, there is an increasing clarity regarding the strengthening of policies in the fourth quarter, with expectations for indices to recover and rise [5] - The investment strategy should focus on new technology trends, particularly in AI, and sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" policies [5] - Potential beneficiaries of the "15th Five-Year Plan" include emerging technologies and sectors related to domestic demand expansion [6]