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央行维持呵护投放,跨季窗口下资金利率跳升的概率不大
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-09-29 09:06

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 288.6 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 48.1 billion yuan after 240.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - In the previous week, the PBOC's net injection in the open market was 640.6 billion yuan, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [1] - The liquidity situation shifted from loose to tight, with overnight funding rates rising from 1.46% to 1.52% and 7-day funding rates increasing significantly from 1.52% to 1.80% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming week will see a decrease in the scale of reverse repos maturing to 516.6 billion yuan, while government bond net payments will rise to 192.7 billion yuan, primarily concentrated on Monday [2] - Despite the approaching quarter-end, the current pace of institutions in crossing the quarter is relatively fast, and the limited scale of government bond payments and reverse repos maturing is expected to result in stable liquidity [2] - The liquidity is likely to return to a loose state after the "Double Festival" holiday, supported by high fiscal spending levels at the end of the month [2] Group 3 - The PBOC's monetary policy committee meeting indicated a shift from "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to "implementing detailed moderately loose monetary policy," emphasizing the execution of monetary policy measures [3] - The focus remains on implementing existing policies without mentioning rate cuts, indicating a continued emphasis on supporting consumption and small and micro enterprises [3] - The monetary policy attitude is still "moderately loose," with expectations for potential fiscal stimulus in the fourth quarter due to weak demand [3] Group 4 - Guotai Junan Securities anticipates that the PBOC will enhance liquidity in the interbank market through measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or increasing the volume of monetary policy tools [4] - Following the capital increase of four major state-owned banks, other types of banks are also expected to prioritize capital replenishment [4]