Oil Dips as Traders Zero in on Prospect of More OPEC+ Supplies

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have declined due to signals that OPEC+ will increase production in November, tempering a previous strong rally [1][2] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ is considering raising output by at least 137,000 barrels per day in November, as indicated by sources familiar with the plans [1][2] - Analysts from RBC Capital Markets view a repeat of the 137,000-barrel-a-day increase as the most likely outcome from the upcoming meeting on October 5 [2] - Many producers, excluding Saudi Arabia, have reached their production capacity limits, suggesting that future OPEC+ supply increases will be lower than announced figures [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite OPEC+ pursuing a strategy to reclaim market share rather than managing prices, crude oil remains on track for monthly and quarterly gains [4] - Robust buying for stockpiling in China and geopolitical tensions, such as Ukraine's strikes against Moscow's energy infrastructure, have supported oil prices [4] Group 3: Future Projections - The International Energy Agency has projected a record oversupply in 2026 as OPEC+ continues to revive production and supply from rivals increases [5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates Brent crude prices falling to the mid-$50s per barrel next year, despite ongoing crude stockpiling in China [5] Group 4: Regional Developments - In Iraq, crude oil flows via a pipeline from the northern region to Turkey have resumed after a halt of over two years, indicating a recovery in exports [6]