Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-09-29 10:09Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector is experiencing a significant rally, driven by low valuations and strong performance expectations, with potential for continued upward momentum in the fourth quarter as institutional funds shift towards absolute returns [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 29, the brokerage sector saw a notable surge, with the brokerage ETF (159842) rising by 5.19%, leading the market [2]. - Major brokerage stocks such as GF Securities and Huatai Securities hit the daily limit, while 49 out of 49 component stocks in the sector closed higher [2]. - The sector attracted a net inflow of 11.343 billion yuan, indicating a significant increase in trading volume compared to the previous trading day [2]. Group 2: Valuation and Performance Metrics - As of September 29, the securities index had a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.52, which is in the 14.5% percentile over the past year, and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.52, in the 55% percentile [3]. - The brokerage sector has seen a cumulative decline of approximately 8% in September, underperforming major indices, which enhances its attractiveness for rebalancing funds [3]. Group 3: Earnings and Growth Potential - In the first half of 2025, 42 listed brokerages achieved a net profit of 104 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65%, with core net profit growth of 52% [4][5]. - The second quarter alone saw a core net profit of 51.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 49% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21% [4]. - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in market conditions, with improved earnings and valuation recovery anticipated [4][5]. Group 4: Institutional Investment Trends - Institutional holdings in brokerage stocks are at a low of 0.64% as of the end of Q2 2025, indicating a significant underweight compared to the free float market capitalization of the CSI 300 [3]. - The current environment is seen as favorable for institutional investors seeking to increase exposure to the brokerage sector, driven by positive earnings expectations and low valuations [3][4].