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韩国生育率真的迎来转机了吗
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-09-29 11:37

Core Insights - South Korea's birth rate has shown signs of improvement for the first time in nearly a decade, with a projected increase in newborns to 238,000 in 2024, marking a 3.6% year-on-year rise and a total fertility rate of 0.75 [2][10] - Despite recent positive trends, South Korea's birth rate remains the lowest globally, and long-term projections indicate a significant demographic crisis, including a potential halving of the population by 2100 [2][3][10] Population Crisis - South Korea has been grappling with ultra-low fertility rates for over 20 years, with the total fertility rate dropping below 1.3 and reaching a record low of 0.59 in Seoul [1][2] - The declining birth rate has led to school closures and a shrinking military recruitment pool, with projections indicating a 58% reduction in eligible conscripts over the next 50 years [2][3] Economic and Social Pressures - High housing costs and education expenses are significant barriers for young families, with private education expenditures consuming over 20% of household income [4] - The rapid transition from an agricultural to an information society has altered cultural values, leading to delayed marriage and childbearing among women, with the average age of first-time mothers now at 33.4 years [5][6] Policy Responses - The South Korean government has implemented a comprehensive five-year plan to address low birth rates, including direct financial support for families, parental leave policies, and housing incentives [7][8][9] - Financial support includes one-time birth grants of 2 million KRW per newborn and monthly allowances for childcare, with total public spending on child-related subsidies exceeding 280 trillion KRW over the past two decades [7][8] Challenges to Sustained Improvement - The recent uptick in birth rates is closely tied to rising marriage rates, but historical trends suggest that this may not lead to a long-term reversal of declining birth rates [10][11] - The current policies primarily focus on childbirth rather than comprehensive support for child-rearing, particularly in secondary and higher education, which may limit their effectiveness [10][11] Need for Broader Reforms - To effectively address the demographic crisis, South Korea must undertake deep social, economic, and cultural reforms, including promoting gender equality and improving workplace conditions [12] - Learning from successful international models, such as Sweden's family-friendly policies and France's public childcare systems, could provide valuable insights for South Korea [12]