美元扰动难改稳势，人民币中间价调升63个基点

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate are influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, the dynamics of China-U.S. trade negotiations, and the resilience of the Chinese economy under tariff pressures [1][5]. Exchange Rate Fluctuations - As of September 29, the RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 7.1089, an increase of 63 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB has shown a pattern of narrow fluctuations, with the offshore RMB reaching around 7.08 in early September before dropping below 7.14 the following week [1]. - The recent depreciation of the RMB is attributed to a temporary rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which rose to a two-week high of 98.6044 on September 25 [2]. Internal and External Factors - The "strong dollar, weak RMB" trend is a result of multiple converging factors, including the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts and seasonal demand for foreign currency [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's recent comments on inflation and employment risks have tempered market expectations for significant rate cuts, providing temporary support for the dollar [2][3]. Economic Recovery and Trade Relations - The RMB's overall trend this year has been one of appreciation, driven by both internal recovery and external factors, with experts predicting that short-term fluctuations will not alter the long-term stability of the RMB [4][5]. - Positive developments in China-U.S. trade negotiations have contributed to a more stable outlook for the RMB, as the People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining the currency's stability at a reasonable equilibrium level [5].