金价突破新高，美国政府或迎关门风险

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown an upward trend, reaching a new high, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and potential U.S. government shutdowns [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of September 26, gold prices closed at $3,758.78 per ounce, with a weekly increase of $74.13 per ounce, marking a 2.01% rise [1]. - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, with officials expressing differing views but leaning towards dovish stances, which supports the outlook for gold prices [1][3]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Russia, NATO, and conflicts in the Middle East, are contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with the second quarter GDP revised up to 3.8%, driven by stronger consumer and investment growth [2]. - The U.S. unemployment claims decreased to 218,000, indicating a stable job market, which may influence the Federal Reserve's future decisions [3]. - The potential U.S. government shutdown could impact GDP, with estimates suggesting a 0.1 percentage point drag per week [4]. Group 3: Long-term Trends - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally is expected to support gold as a new pricing anchor, increasing demand for gold as a safe asset [7]. - Central banks, including China's, continue to increase gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching 74.02 million ounces, reflecting a sustained trend of gold accumulation [7]. - The introduction of stablecoin regulations may influence the demand for gold, depending on the stability and credibility of the U.S. dollar [6].