【财经分析】生猪价格跌至年内新低 行业面临不同程度亏损

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in pig prices is primarily driven by oversupply, with the average price dropping to 12.26 yuan/kg, marking a new low for the year [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The high inventory of breeding sows, which stood at 40.38 million heads as of August 2025, is 103.5% of the normal holding capacity, contributing to the oversupply [3]. - The planned pig slaughter volume for September is expected to reach 13.32 million heads, a slight increase of 1.29% from August and a 17.46% increase year-on-year [3]. - The market is currently experiencing a phase of supply surplus, leading to downward pressure on prices [3][4]. Market Conditions and Consumer Behavior - The upcoming holidays are expected to increase market stocking intentions, potentially accelerating the outflow of previously held pigs [4]. - Consumer demand remains weak, with no significant boost to pig prices anticipated in the near term [4][5]. Financial Impact on Farmers - Farmers are facing significant losses, with self-breeding farmers losing approximately 116 yuan per head and fattening farmers losing about 263 yuan per head [6]. - The cost of raising pigs for large groups is around 6.5 yuan/kg, while for smallholders it is about 7 yuan/kg, indicating that current prices are nearing the cost line for many producers [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that pig prices have not yet reached the bottom, with the industry likely to remain in a "bottoming phase" [8]. - Long-term improvements in the supply-demand balance are anticipated due to production capacity regulation policies, with a potential decrease in breeding sow inventory to around 39 million heads [9].