生猪价格跌至年内新低 行业面临不同程度亏损

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in pig prices is primarily driven by oversupply, with the national average price dropping to 12.26 yuan/kg, marking a new low for the year [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The high inventory of breeding sows, which stood at 40.38 million heads as of August 2025, is 103.5% of the normal level, contributing to the oversupply [2]. - The planned pig slaughter volume for September is expected to reach 13.32 million heads, a 1.29% increase from August and a 17.46% increase year-on-year, indicating a growing supply pressure [2]. - Seasonal factors, such as typhoons in southern regions and the upcoming holidays, are expected to further increase market supply as producers rush to sell [2][3]. Production Efficiency and Costs - Leading enterprises are improving production efficiency, with some achieving a PSY (pigs per sow per year) of 28-29 heads, which supports supply despite the current low prices [3]. - The average cost of pig farming is around 6.5 yuan/kg for large groups and can reach 7 yuan/kg for smaller farmers, indicating that current prices are nearing the cost line for many producers [4]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the pig price has not yet reached its bottom, with the industry likely to remain in a "bottoming phase" due to continued oversupply [4][5]. - Long-term improvements in the supply-demand balance are anticipated as production capacity control policies are implemented, potentially leading to a decrease in breeding sow inventory to around 39 million heads by late 2026 [5].