Market Overview - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a slight decline in new home sales in key cities during the first three quarters of 2025, with market momentum weakening in the second quarter and continuing to stabilize at the bottom in the third quarter. However, the introduction of quality land by leading real estate companies in core cities is expected to support new home sales in the fourth quarter, suggesting opportunities in "good cities + good houses" [1][2][3]. Supply and Demand - In the first three quarters, new home transaction volume in key cities showed a slight year-on-year decline, with the second quarter experiencing weakened market momentum and the third quarter continuing to stabilize at the bottom. The second-hand housing market saw growth in transaction volume due to price adjustments [2][4]. - Nationally, from January to August 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing was 570 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%, with sales revenue of 5.5 trillion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year. Existing home sales outperformed new homes, with existing home sales accounting for 35.4% of total sales [3][4]. Key Cities Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the transaction area of new residential properties in 100 key cities slightly decreased year-on-year. The market was affected by extreme weather and a continuous reduction in supply, although there was a recovery in September due to increased supply in core cities [4][6]. - The second-hand housing market in key cities maintained growth, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 9% in transaction volume. Notably, cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai saw significant increases in second-hand housing transactions [6][10]. Price Trends - From January to August 2025, the average price of second-hand housing in 100 cities fell by 5.08%, while new housing prices increased by 1.54% due to the entry of quality improvement projects [12][16][17]. - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities was 16,910 yuan per square meter in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.73% [17]. Land Supply and Demand - In the first three quarters, the land transfer revenue for residential land in 300 cities increased by approximately 13% year-on-year, although the area sold decreased by 9%. The focus of land acquisition remained on core cities, with a notable decline in land supply in lower-tier cities [19][21]. - The average premium rate for land transactions in the third quarter decreased, indicating a cooling in the land market despite some high premium transactions in core cities [26][27]. Development Investment - From January to August 2025, real estate development investment amounted to 6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%. This decline was attributed to pressures on short-term investments [35][38]. - The funding available to real estate developers also faced challenges, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.0% in funds received by developers [41]. Policy Environment - The macroeconomic environment is expected to face increased pressure in the fourth quarter, necessitating stronger macro policies. The real estate policy is anticipated to continue focusing on stabilizing the market and stimulating demand [42][46]. - Recent central government meetings emphasized the importance of urban renewal and the need to activate demand through various measures, indicating a proactive approach to support the real estate market [43][48].
中指研究院：中国房地产市场三季度延续底部盘整 市场分化趋势或将延续
智通财经网·2025-09-29 13:43