Partners Group's Anastasia Amoroso: Tariff impact is behind lower hiring

Labor Market and Employment - The labor market is currently in a state of balance, not overly weak but also not strong, with limited net new hiring occurring [5][9] - Companies are primarily replacing existing employees rather than creating new positions, which is attributed to the impact of tariffs and the need to maintain margins [2][3] - The break-even rate for job creation is approximately 90,000 jobs, but current job creation is falling short of this target [9][10] Economic Conditions and Federal Reserve Actions - Market participants are relying on the Federal Reserve to provide sufficient accommodation, potentially easing by 75 basis points, to support the economy [1][4] - A loosening of financial conditions could help mitigate the impacts of tariffs on corporations [2][4] - Concerns about inflation are viewed as backward-looking, with current core PCE inflation for services running at 2.5% and goods inflation being the primary concern [10][12] Impact of Artificial Intelligence - The increasing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) by companies could lead to ongoing layoffs, particularly as firms tighten their budgets [5][6] - Currently, 9% of companies are experimenting with AI, which may contribute to job losses across various sectors [6] Seasonal Trends and Market Performance - Historically, October tends to present tailwinds for the market, but September showed strong performance that defied seasonal patterns [13] - There may be a need to consolidate excess enthusiasm in the market before moving towards higher performance levels [14]