NBIS vs. MSFT: Which AI Infrastructure Stock is the Smarter Bet?

Core Insights - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is emerging in the AI infrastructure market, while Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is a well-established leader in the tech industry [1][2] - AI infrastructure spending is projected to exceed $200 billion by 2028, benefiting both companies but in different magnitudes [2] Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) - NBIS reported a remarkable revenue increase of 625% year-over-year, reaching $105.1 million, with AI cloud infrastructure revenues growing over nine times [3][9] - The company has raised its year-end Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) guidance to between $900 million and $1.1 billion, up from a previous estimate of $750 million to $1 billion [4] - NBIS has secured a significant deal with Microsoft, providing dedicated GPU capacity valued at approximately $17.4 billion through 2031, with potential to increase to $19.4 billion [5][9] - The company plans to achieve a connected power capacity of 220 megawatts by 2025 and aims for a 1 GW capacity target by 2026 [4] - NBIS has raised $4 billion in debt and closed a public offering, with proceeds aimed at business growth and data center expansion [7] Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) - MSFT's Azure cloud platform is the second-largest globally, with annual revenues of $75 billion and a growth rate of 34% [9][10] - The company has invested $13 billion in OpenAI, gaining exclusive rights to OpenAI's IP for its products [12] - MSFT's AI business has surpassed a $13 billion annual revenue run rate, growing 175% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 [13] - The company plans over $30 billion in capital expenditures for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, supported by a significant cash reserve of $94.56 billion [14] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past month, NBIS shares have increased by 57.7%, while MSFT stock has seen a modest rise of 1% [15] - Both companies are considered overvalued, with NBIS trading at a Price/Book ratio of 6.73X and MSFT at 11.07X [18] - Current earnings estimates for NBIS have been significantly revised downward, while MSFT has seen marginal upward revisions [20][22] Investment Outlook - NBIS currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), while MSFT has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a preference for MSFT as a more favorable investment at this time [23]