Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-09-29 17:49Core Viewpoint - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is set to review the world's first legally binding net-zero emissions framework for the shipping industry, which is expected to significantly boost the demand for green methanol in the coming years [1][2]. Industry Overview - The demand for green methanol in the shipping industry is projected to surge from tens of thousands of tons annually to between 30 million and 40 million tons by 2030, representing an increase of over 100 times [1]. - By 2030, the green methanol market is anticipated to exceed 100 billion yuan [1]. Regulatory Framework - The net-zero framework mandates a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping by over 20% by 2030 compared to 2008 levels, over 70% by 2040, and aims for net-zero emissions around 2050 [1]. - The framework will apply to large ocean-going vessels with a gross tonnage exceeding 5,000 tons, which account for 85% of the total carbon dioxide emissions from international shipping [1]. Market Dynamics - The demand for methanol-fueled vessels is expected to grow significantly, with 300 methanol fuel ships projected to be operational, driving a demand for 6.8 million tons of green methanol [2]. - By 2030, the global demand for green methanol is estimated to exceed 40 million tons, with a penetration rate of only 15% based on current fuel consumption in the shipping industry [2]. Supply Constraints - Current production capacity for green methanol is significantly below expected demand, with domestic capacity under 300,000 tons and global capacity under 500,000 tons [2]. - Factors such as land use for chemical production, biomass resource availability, and green electricity costs are limiting the expansion of production capacity [2]. Company Developments - Several A-share companies, including Goldwind Technology and China Tianying, have proactively positioned themselves in the green methanol industry, with existing orders and expansion plans [3][4]. - Goldwind Technology is investing over 18.9 billion yuan in a wind power hydrogen-methanol integrated project, aiming to produce 60,000 tons of green methanol annually [4]. - China Tianying is developing multiple projects, including a 10,000-ton green methanol production facility, with plans to achieve a production capacity of 1 million tons by around 2030 [4].