黄金现货价格突破3800美元/盎司机构称中长期仍有上涨空间

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with spot gold prices reaching a historical high of $3,819.81 per ounce, driven by factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased demand from financial investors, particularly gold ETFs [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On September 29, spot gold prices surged over 1%, breaking the $3,800 per ounce mark, while silver prices also hit a historical high, reflecting a strong performance across the precious metals market [1]. - UBS Wealth Management's Chief Investment Office predicts that gold prices could reach $3,900 per ounce by mid-2026, indicating a bullish long-term outlook for gold [1][3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to financial investment rather than private consumption or physical investment, with significant inflows into gold ETFs observed since June [2]. - Central banks' gold purchasing remains robust, with a total of 166 tons acquired in the second quarter, providing a supportive backdrop for gold prices [2][3]. - Three main factors are expected to support the upward trend in gold prices: 1. Increased demand for safe-haven assets due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [3]. 2. Continued central bank purchases aimed at diversifying reserves and reducing reliance on the US dollar [3]. 3. Inflation expectations, which, if they materialize, could further enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [3]. Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Despite a recent decline in gold investment demand in China due to a rising stock market, expectations are that gold ETF holdings will recover as prices continue to rise [4]. - The Hong Kong government's plan to expand gold reserves and establish a central clearing system for gold is anticipated to provide additional support for gold prices [4].