“金融稳，经济稳”：关税冲击下的银行业防风险与稳信心

Group 1 - The core relationship between finance and the economy is one of mutual support, where economic vitality is essential for financial stability and vice versa [1] - Current tariff shocks pose significant challenges to economic development, necessitating a coordinated approach to banking development and safety to mitigate risks [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, China's exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, demonstrating resilience amid global trade uncertainties [2] - The current round of tariff shocks is characterized by rapid implementation and significant increases, shortening the "export rush" window for Chinese companies [2][3] - The U.S. has begun to impose punitive tariffs on goods suspected of being transshipped from China, complicating the external trade environment for Chinese exporters [3] Group 3 - Tariff shocks will indirectly impact the banking sector through mechanisms of passive pressure and active contraction, affecting credit availability and increasing default risks [4] - The interaction between the real economy and bank balance sheets can create a self-reinforcing feedback loop, amplifying the impact of tariff shocks on both the banking sector and the economy [4] Group 4 - Recommendations include enhancing regulatory tools to balance market confidence and long-term risk prevention, with a focus on temporary regulatory leniency and clear policy windows [5] - Utilizing export credit insurance and providing targeted loans to key industries can help mitigate risks for banks and stabilize cash flows for affected enterprises [6] - The integration of financial technology and data resources is essential for optimizing trade and financial data, thereby reducing transaction costs and enhancing risk-sharing among enterprises [7]