Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with spot gold prices reaching a historical high of $3,819.81 per ounce, driven by factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased demand from gold ETFs [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 29, spot gold prices rose over 1%, breaking the $3,800 per ounce mark, while spot silver prices increased by 2%, reaching $47.174 per ounce, also a historical high [2]. - The A-share market saw a strong performance in the precious metals sector, with several gold-related stocks, such as Zhaojin Mining and Xiaocheng Technology, rising over 6% [2]. Group 2: Investment Drivers - Financial investment participants, including gold ETF investors and global central banks, are identified as the main sources of the current upward trend in gold prices [3]. - In September, global gold ETF holdings surged, with a notable increase of nearly 27 tons in a single day, marking the fastest growth in three years [3]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - UBS Wealth Management predicts that gold prices could reach $3,900 per ounce by mid-2026, supported by a favorable macroeconomic narrative for precious metals [4]. - Analysts from Dongwu Securities believe that the downward trend in real interest rates and the initiation of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve will provide substantial upward potential for gold prices [4]. Group 4: Supporting Factors - Three main factors are expected to support the upward trend in gold prices: 1. Increased demand for safe-haven assets due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [4]. 2. Continued central bank purchases of gold, driven by diversification of reserves and reduced reliance on the US dollar [4]. 3. Inflation expectations, which, if they materialize, could enhance gold's value as an inflation hedge [5]. Group 5: Regional Insights - In China, despite a recent decline in gold investment demand due to a rising stock market, expectations are that ETF holdings will recover as gold prices continue to rise [5]. - The Hong Kong government's plan to expand gold reserves and establish a central clearing system for gold is anticipated to provide additional support for gold prices [5].