Economic Data and Market Reaction - The U.S. economy showed positive indicators with a revised GDP growth of 3.8% for Q2, up 0.5 percentage points from previous estimates, exceeding market expectations [1] - Consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, was revised up from 1.6% to 2.5%, indicating stronger consumer activity [1] - Initial jobless claims fell to 218,000, the lowest level since July, suggesting improvements in the labor market [1] Federal Reserve Policy Concerns - The market's negative reaction is largely attributed to concerns over the Federal Reserve's policy path, despite a recent 25 basis point rate cut [2] - Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the rate cut was a "risk management" move rather than the start of a loosening cycle, dampening expectations for further rate cuts [2] - The upward revision of GDP data alongside persistent inflation pressures indicates that the Fed will need to balance inflation control with employment considerations [2] Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The phenomenon of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" was evident as investors took profits after the rate cut and positive economic data, leading to a decline in major stock indices [3] - The rise in the dollar index and bond yields post-GDP release reflects a recalibration of market expectations [3] - Concerns about the sustainability of economic growth are heightened by the fact that the GDP increase was primarily driven by consumer spending and a decline in imports, which may not be sustainable [3] Future Outlook and Challenges - The market's negative response to positive economic data highlights anxiety over the loss of flexibility in monetary policy, as strong growth may not lead to looser liquidity conditions [4] - The future trajectory of the U.S. stock market will depend on the delicate balance between inflation and employment data, as well as the Fed's ability to navigate political pressures and economic realities [4]
数据向好 为何美股负面反应
Jing Ji Ri Bao·2025-09-29 22:19