已震荡供应格局，将造成药物短缺，美国药物关税令各方不安

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by President Trump to impose a 100% tariff on all imported brand-name or patented drugs starting October 1 has caused significant upheaval in the pharmaceutical supply chain, leading to protests from European pharmaceutical giants and concerns over rising drug prices in the U.S. [1][2] Tariff Policy Impact - The new tariff policy adds complexity to an already intricate pharmaceutical supply chain, with experts urging the White House for clearer details [2] - The 100% tariff applies to imported brand-name drugs, but companies with existing or planned manufacturing facilities in the U.S. may be exempt [2] - The exclusion of generic drugs from the tariff is notable, as they constitute a significant portion of U.S. prescription drug sales [2][3] Economic Implications - U.S. pharmaceutical imports are projected to reach approximately $213 billion in 2024, tripling over the past decade, with over 20% coming from Asia [3] - The new tariffs may lead to increased drug prices for U.S. consumers, as the average spending on prescription drugs is already about twice that of other developed countries [3] - Pharmaceutical companies warn that the tariffs could hinder drug development and raise prices [3] Concerns from Small and Generic Drug Manufacturers - Smaller pharmaceutical companies producing niche drugs may face significant challenges, as they might not afford to relocate production to the U.S. [3] - The potential for supply disruptions exists, particularly for patented drugs that lack alternatives [3] Indian Generic Drug Industry - Indian pharmaceutical companies are currently not directly affected by the tariffs on generic drugs, but there are concerns about future expansions of the tariff scope [4][5] - India supplies over one-third of the U.S. pharmaceutical market, with exports projected to reach $27.9 billion in the 2024 fiscal year [5][6] European Pharmaceutical Industry Response - The European pharmaceutical sector has expressed strong opposition to the tariffs, warning of increased production costs and potential disruptions to international supply chains [7][8] - Germany's pharmaceutical industry heavily relies on the U.S. market, with exports valued at €27 billion in 2024, making the new tariffs particularly concerning [7] - Some companies are taking proactive measures, such as Bayer's commitment to constructive cooperation with the U.S. government [8] Risk of Drug Shortages and Price Increases - The tariffs could exacerbate existing drug shortages in Europe, with reports indicating that around 450 drugs are currently out of stock in Germany [9] - Companies may consider raising prices in European markets to offset losses from the U.S. market, as seen with Sanofi and Eli Lilly [9]