2025年8月经济数据点评：重“质”稳“量”，经济阶段性回调

Economic Outlook - The overall policy tone remains "seeking progress while maintaining stability," with signals of policy adjustments indicating increased economic downward pressure in the second half of the year [2][3] - Short-term economic pressures exist, but long-term benefits are expected for high-quality development, with "anti-involution" potentially influencing economic trends [2][3] Supply Side - In August 2025, China's industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a slowdown of 0.5 percentage points from July, with cumulative growth at 6.2% [3][9] - The slowdown is attributed to supply chain disruptions due to extreme summer heat, seasonal fluctuations in export orders, and continued weakness in real estate investment [3][9] - High-tech industries show resilience, indicating a shift towards high-quality industrial transformation [3][9] Demand Side - Retail sales of consumer goods in August 2025 increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting policy adjustments and a slowdown in consumption growth [4][16] - Fixed asset investment from January to August 2025 grew by 0.5% year-on-year, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous period, indicating a phase of adjustment in investment growth [4][20] - Exports totaled $321.81 billion in August, up 4.4% year-on-year, but down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, with structural changes in exports continuing [4][23] Price Trends - In August 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.9%, with both indices showing signs of narrowing the gap due to base effects [7][34][47] - The CPI's decline is influenced by high base effects in food prices, while the PPI's decrease reflects external uncertainties and domestic market adjustments [7][34][47] Monetary and Financial Conditions - In August 2025, the new social financing scale was 25.693 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.3% year-on-year, indicating seasonal adjustments in credit and off-balance-sheet financing [8][51] - The M1 money supply grew by 6% year-on-year, reflecting an acceleration in corporate demand for liquidity, while M2 remained stable at 8.8% [8][70] - The overall financing environment shows signs of improvement, but structural challenges in economic recovery persist [8][70]