国际金价再创历史新高 高金价下中国需求降温

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged, breaking through $3,820 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $3,827.37 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 45% [3] - The rising gold prices have negatively impacted demand, particularly in the Chinese market, where physical gold demand has shown signs of weakness [2][5] Gold Price Trends - As of September 29, 2023, London gold prices reached $3,827.37 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 1.82% and a year-to-date increase of over 45% [3] - London silver prices also rose to $46.72 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 61% [3] - High prices have led to a cautious consumer sentiment in China, affecting the demand for physical gold [5] Demand Dynamics - In August, China's physical gold demand continued to decline, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold outflow at 85 tons, a decrease of 9 tons from the previous month, marking the lowest level for August since 2010 [5] - The World Gold Council noted that the decline in demand is attributed to increased investor risk appetite shifting towards the stock market, leading to a slowdown in gold bar and coin sales [5] - Chinese consumers are now more focused on the craftsmanship and brand of gold products rather than investment, resulting in decreased demand for physical gold [5] Investment Trends - The Chinese central bank has maintained a strong interest in gold, increasing its reserves to 74.02 million ounces as of the end of August, marking a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces [4] - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased to 1,005.72 tons, reflecting a positive investment sentiment despite the high prices [4] - The World Gold Council anticipates that if gold prices continue to rise, investment demand may rebound [5] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the macroeconomic environment, including risks of a U.S. government shutdown and expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is favorable for gold as a safe-haven asset [4] - Short-term forecasts indicate that if London gold prices break through the $3,800 per ounce resistance level, they could potentially rise to $4,000 per ounce [4] - The upcoming National Day holiday in China may introduce volatility in the market, prompting recommendations for cautious trading strategies [4]