Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-09-30 00:09Core Viewpoint - The recent "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments aims to enhance high-end supply, regulate major project construction, and ensure fertilizer production stability, which is expected to optimize supply and improve industry prosperity [1][2]. Group 1: Capacity Control and Industry Impact - The plan emphasizes strict control over new refining capacity and rational planning for the addition of ethylene, PX, and coal-based methanol production, focusing on supporting the replacement and upgrading of outdated facilities [2]. - In 2024, China's refining, PX, and methanol capacities are projected to change by -1%, 0%, and 2% year-on-year, reaching 970 million tons, 44 million tons, and 103 million tons respectively, indicating a significant slowdown in capacity growth [2]. - Ethylene capacity is expected to grow by 7% in 2024 to 5.542 million tons, with a total of 2.415 million tons planned for addition in 2025/26, but the supply-demand balance is weakening due to concentrated investments in recent years [2]. Group 2: Fertilizer Production and Supply Stability - The plan requires optimization of minimum production plans for key fertilizer producers and encourages long-term supply agreements between raw material suppliers and fertilizer manufacturers to ensure stable raw material supply [3]. - Rising prices of upstream raw materials, particularly sulfur and sulfuric acid, due to refinery output declines and geopolitical conflicts, are expected to impact fertilizer production stability positively [3]. Group 3: High-end Supply and Emerging Technologies - The plan aims to enhance high-end supply and accelerate the digital and green transformation, promoting the development of new materials and emerging technologies [4]. - Key areas for high-end chemical materials include integrated circuits, new energy, medical devices, and low-altitude economy, with innovations in electronic chemicals, specialty engineering plastics, and carbon fiber materials expected to accelerate [4]. - Traditional materials are anticipated to improve in quality, with industries gradually transitioning towards low-energy consumption, environmental protection, and high-end production [4].