中信证券：白酒市场中秋需求有所回暖 继续以去库调整为主

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing a slow recovery in demand as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, with expectations of a year-on-year decline in sales during the National Day and Mid-Autumn holiday period by approximately 15% to 20% [1] Industry Summary - The current focus in the white liquor market is on inventory adjustment through bottle opening and sales [1] - The consumption of white liquor in banquet settings and the mass price segment is expected to perform relatively better [1] - The bottom of the industry fundamentals is anticipated to appear in the third quarter of 2025, with the third quarter of this year expected to be the most challenging period for sales, prices, and market confidence [1] - The second half of this year is projected to be the most pressured period for the financial performance of white liquor listed companies, but a gradual recovery trend is expected thereafter, presenting bottom-fishing opportunities in the industry [1] Beer Industry Summary - The beer sector is expected to maintain stable pre-holiday stocking rhythms due to a lower base in the second half of the year [1] - However, increased competition and the impact of alcohol restrictions are anticipated to exert pressure on the financial reports for the third quarter [1]