【德邦化工】PTA 反内卷在即，行业拐点已渐进

Core Viewpoint - The PTA industry is discussing a joint production cut among leading companies to address the urgent need for profit improvement due to declining operating rates and increasing supply-demand imbalances [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - PTA capacity in China has rapidly expanded from 46.69 million tons in 2019 to an expected 84.28 million tons by 2024, with a CAGR of 12.5%. By August 2025, capacity is projected to reach 91.35 million tons [2]. - The operating rate has decreased significantly, dropping to 78% in August 2025 from 90% in 2019, indicating a historical low [2]. - The profit margin for PTA products has been compressed, with price differentials narrowing to under 200 RMB/ton, leading many companies to incur losses [2]. Market Structure - The PTA market is highly concentrated, with six major companies controlling approximately 75% of the capacity: Hengli Petrochemical (16.6 million tons), Tongkun Co. (10.2 million tons), Xin Fengming (7.7 million tons), Yisheng (22 million tons), Dongfang Shenghong (6.5 million tons), and Sanfangxiang (5.6 million tons) [3]. - The industry is expected to establish a self-regulatory mechanism to avoid disorderly competition through collaborative production cuts among major players [3]. Technological Advancements - The domestic PTA industry has undergone four technological iterations, resulting in larger production units that improve cost efficiency and reduce energy consumption [3][4]. - The average processing costs have significantly decreased from 840 RMB/ton for the first generation to 275 RMB/ton for the fourth generation, indicating a substantial cost advantage for new low-cost facilities [4]. Future Outlook - The expansion of PTA capacity is nearing its end, with only one additional project expected to come online in October 2025, leading to a projected CAGR of only 2.8% for the next three years [5]. - The combination of "anti-involution" policies, industry collaboration, and accelerated technological upgrades is expected to optimize the PTA market structure, potentially leading to a new cycle of industry prosperity as domestic and international demand stabilizes [5]. Recommended Companies - Companies to watch include Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Xin Fengming, Hengli Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Sanfangxiang [6].