中信证券：白酒行业基本面底或出现在2025年三季度

Core Insights - The white liquor market is experiencing a slow recovery in demand as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, with inventory adjustments primarily through bottle opening and sales [1] - It is expected that liquor sales during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays will decline by approximately 15%-20% year-on-year, although consumption in banquet settings and the mass price segment may perform relatively better [1] - The report anticipates that the bottom of the white liquor industry's fundamentals may appear in the third quarter of 2025, with the current third quarter being the most challenging period for sales, prices, and market confidence [1] - The second half of the year is projected to be the most pressured period for the financial performance of listed liquor companies, but a gradual recovery trend is expected thereafter, presenting potential bottom-fishing opportunities in the industry [1] - The beer sector is expected to maintain stable pre-holiday stocking rhythms due to a lower base in the second half of the year, but increased competition and the impact of alcohol restrictions may exert pressure on third-quarter financial results [1]