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天风证券:维持珍酒李渡(06979)“买入”评级 多措并举有望推动公司稳健增长
智通财经网·2025-09-30 02:32

Core Viewpoint - The overall white liquor industry is still in an adjustment period, leading to a downward revision of the profit forecast for Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) for 2025-2027 [1] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.497 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6%, and a net profit of 575 million yuan, down 23.5% [1][2] - The expected revenue for 2025-2027 is revised to 5.978 billion, 6.590 billion, and 7.141 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 7.328 billion, 8.100 billion, and 8.786 billion yuan [1][5] - The expected net profit for the same period is adjusted to 1.073 billion, 1.294 billion, and 1.700 billion yuan, compared to previous forecasts of 1.525 billion, 1.820 billion, and 2.305 billion yuan [1][5] Sales and Volume Analysis - The company's liquor business revenue for H1 2025 was 2.497 billion yuan, with a volume decrease of 35.58% to 9,125 tons and an average price drop of 6.20% to 273,700 yuan per ton [2] - Revenue by brand showed Zhenjiu, Lidu, Xiangjiao, and Kaikouxiao at 1.492 billion, 611 million, 277 million, and 81 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 44.80%, 9.40%, 38.73%, and 63.91% [2] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for H1 2025 improved by 0.28 percentage points to 59.04%, while the net profit margin increased by 4.83 percentage points to 23.02% [4] - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to a higher proportion of Lidu, which has a better margin, and the release of self-owned production capacity, reducing unit costs [4] Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on mid-to-high-end products and expanding banquet scene channels to drive stable growth in 2025 [5] - The company maintains a "buy" rating despite the overall adjustment in the white liquor industry [1][5]