中国汽车流通协会：2025年9月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为54.5%

Core Insights - The latest "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Warning Index" indicates a slight year-on-year increase in the inventory warning index to 54.5% as of September 2025, while showing a month-on-month decrease of 2.5%, suggesting a decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In September, multiple regions paused or adjusted the vehicle trade-in subsidy policies, which suppressed short-term demand. However, seasonal factors such as back-to-school purchases, weddings, and self-driving needs, along with dealer promotions and local auto shows, significantly improved order conversion efficiency [2] - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to delay some consumer purchases, impacting market performance. Overall, the performance in September met expectations, with local autumn auto shows and consumption policies effectively boosting orders and sales in the latter half of the month [2] - Approximately 54.8% of dealers reported that new car sales did not meet their expected targets, while 45.2% achieved or exceeded their expectations. The estimated terminal sales for passenger cars in September are around 2.2 million units [2] Dealer Challenges - Dealers are facing multiple pressures, including weak customer traffic, ongoing price inversions, and declining profitability. Insufficient foot traffic is the most common challenge, with a decrease in natural store visits and low online lead conversion rates [2] - Price inversions persist, partly due to unsold older models, exacerbating cash flow issues. Coupled with rigid operating costs, dealers' profitability remains under pressure [2] Index Analysis - The inventory, market demand, average daily sales, workforce, and operating conditions indices all showed a month-on-month increase in September [2] - The national index stands at 54.5%, with regional indices showing variations: North at 55.2%, East at 52.7%, West at 49.3%, and South at 61.9% [4] Brand Performance - The indices for luxury and imported brands, joint ventures, and domestic brands all experienced a month-on-month decline in September [7] Future Market Outlook - The automotive market in October is expected to exhibit a "high opening and steady performance" pattern, supported by traditional seasonal trends and ongoing subsidy policies, along with the dual holiday effect and numerous auto shows [9] - Despite some regions pausing national subsidies, the holiday effect and concentrated consumer demand are anticipated to support a moderate recovery in sales for the month. Looking ahead to Q4, 44.4% of dealers are optimistic, predicting a year-on-year sales growth of 5% to 10% [9] - The China Automobile Circulation Association advises dealers to rationally estimate actual market demand and enhance promotion of trade-in and scrapping policies, while prioritizing cost reduction and efficiency improvements to mitigate operational risks [9]