制造业PMI连续两月回升，下阶段走势如何

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy and Manufacturing Sector - The macroeconomic policy is expected to be strengthened and implemented, with the manufacturing PMI showing a slight recovery to 49.8% in September, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating ongoing policy effects [1] - The production index rose to 51.9%, marking a continuous expansion for five months, while the new orders index increased to 49.7%, suggesting a stabilization in market demand [4] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a seasonal peak in production and sales, with procurement activities and employment showing positive trends [4] Group 2: Price Trends and Future Outlook - The purchasing price index for manufacturing decreased to 53.2%, while the factory price index fell to 48.2%, indicating a mixed price trend across different industries [5] - There is an expectation of improved market conditions in the fourth quarter, driven by holiday demand and infrastructure projects, which will likely boost consumption and production activities [5] - The manufacturing production expectation index rose to 54.1%, reflecting increased optimism among manufacturers regarding market developments [6] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with slight declines in the service sector and construction industry, indicating a mild slowdown [9] - The postal industry showed significant growth, with business activity and new orders indices rising over 5 percentage points, reflecting strong online shopping trends [9][10] - Overall, the non-manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize and recover in the fourth quarter, supported by seasonal effects and ongoing macroeconomic policies [10]