又到抉择时刻！国庆中秋双节倒计时1天，持股还是持币过节？数据说话！

Market Overview - Investors face a dilemma of holding stocks or cash during the upcoming National Day holiday, as A-shares will be closed while overseas markets remain open [1] - Historical data indicates a "post-holiday effect" in the A-share market, with a higher probability of a "post-holiday opening red" [1][2] - Over the past decade, the Shanghai Composite Index has generally performed better after holidays compared to before, with post-holiday gains often being more sustained during significant market rallies [1] A-share Performance Data - The table shows the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index before and after the National Day holiday from 2015 to 2024, highlighting the percentage changes [2] - The probability of the index rising post-holiday is 70% for the first trading day and 60% for the first five trading days [2] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market exhibits a "mid-holiday effect," with a tendency to rise during the National Day holiday, although the first trading day after the holiday may be weaker [5] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a higher probability of rising post-holiday, especially when the market is in an upward trend [5][6] Sector Performance Expectations - In the A-share market, sectors such as computer, beauty care, environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, and automotive are expected to show strong performance in the five trading days following the holiday [8] - For the Hong Kong market, all sectors except comprehensive finance have an upward probability of over 60%, with consumer, high-beta, and growth sectors performing relatively well during the holiday [8][9] Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on "hard technology" sectors, including technology, chips, computing power, robotics, and artificial intelligence, as they are expected to lead market trends [11][13] - The "anti-involution" theme is highlighted, particularly in the battery and non-ferrous metals sectors, which are anticipated to benefit from policy catalysts and demand [13] - The report also emphasizes the potential of innovative pharmaceuticals, particularly in the Hong Kong market, due to favorable liquidity conditions and low valuations [14] Broader Market Trends - The report indicates that broad-based ETFs are likely to capture market trends effectively, with financial sectors such as brokerage firms expected to lead the charge [11] - The consumer sector is also highlighted as a key area of interest, especially during the holiday season, with significant inflows into consumer-focused ETFs [14]