今明两年全球锂供应将过剩

Core Insights - The Chilean Copper Commission (COCHILCO) released a lithium market forecast report for 2025-2026, indicating a projected global lithium supply of 1.443 million tons (lithium carbonate equivalent) in 2025, with demand at 1.34 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 103,000 tons [1] - The report anticipates growth in both lithium supply and demand in 2026, with a forecasted surplus of 60,000 tons [1] - Lithium prices have significantly declined since 2023 due to oversupply, despite increasing demand from the electric vehicle (EV) battery sector [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2024, Chile's lithium production is expected to reach 296,908 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, with a slight increase to 300,000 tons in 2025 and further to 300,500 tons in 2026 [2] - The report highlights that geopolitical uncertainties, the cessation of U.S. EV subsidies, and the emergence of new supply countries in Africa contribute to the oversupply situation [1] Price Projections - COCHILCO forecasts that by 2026, the CIF price for lithium carbonate in Asia will reach $10,327 per ton, and for lithium hydroxide, it will be $10,927 per ton, both exceeding the highest prices recorded on August 27 [1] - The sustainability of the recent price increase is contingent upon the duration and scale of production halts [1] Future Outlook - The electric vehicle sector is expected to remain the primary driver of the lithium market, with global EV sales projected to grow by 23.9% year-on-year in 2023 and by 14.7% in 2026 [1] - The report also warns that tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, batteries, and raw materials could increase costs and slow the adoption of electric vehicles [1]