机构看金市：9月30日

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing high uncertainty due to various factors, including potential U.S. government shutdown, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a surge in gold prices to new historical highs [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Evergrande Futures indicates that the U.S. housing market is showing signs of improvement, with the August pending home sales index rising by 0.5% year-on-year, up from a previous increase of 0.3%, driven by lower mortgage rates [1]. - The potential U.S. government shutdown on October 1 could lead to a halt in economic data releases, including the non-farm payroll report, which may create volatility in the market [2][3]. - The COMEX gold management fund's net positions increased by 1,578 contracts to 160,500 contracts, while the silver management fund's net positions rose by 1,293 contracts to 37,000 contracts, indicating a bullish sentiment in the precious metals market [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's officials express concerns about inflation, suggesting that a shift to a more accommodative monetary policy may only occur if there is substantial economic weakness, which is not currently observed [1]. - Barclays Bank notes that the potential loss of Federal Reserve independence could lead to a risk premium in the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, making gold an unexpectedly attractive hedge [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Given the current market conditions and the upcoming holiday period, investors are advised to maintain light positions in precious metals to mitigate risks associated with potential price volatility [2][3]. - Heraeus analysts highlight that the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are likely to support gold prices, with expectations of further cuts in the coming years [3].