美国政府停摆：一场“可预见却难避免”的自我伤害

Core Points - The U.S. federal government faces its most severe shutdown risk since 2019, with a predicted probability of approximately 70% for a partial shutdown on October 1 due to a lack of consensus on short-term funding legislation, particularly regarding healthcare policies [1][2][4] - The political deadlock reflects deep polarization in U.S. politics, which could lead to economic data voids, disruptions in public services, and long-term fiscal uncertainty [1][2] Funding Legislation - The House passed a temporary funding bill aimed at maintaining government operations until November 21, but it failed to gain the necessary support in the Senate, receiving only 44 votes [4][5] - The Democratic proposal included significant healthcare policy demands, such as a $350 billion extension of tax credits under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and the repeal of recent Medicaid cuts, which they view as non-negotiable [4][5] - The Republican leadership firmly opposes any policy attachments to the funding bill, insisting on a "clean" bill to avoid a shutdown before discussing healthcare issues [5][6] Economic Impact - The Labor Department has prepared to halt operations, which will delay the release of key economic reports, including the non-farm payroll report originally scheduled for October 3 [7][10] - A potential shutdown could disrupt essential services, affecting federal facilities, passport processing, and assistance programs for low-income families [10][11] - Historical data indicates that previous shutdowns have led to significant economic losses, with the 2018-2019 shutdown causing an estimated $11 billion loss [11][12] Political Dynamics - The current budget standoff is not merely a fiscal issue but a clash over healthcare policy direction and election strategies, with both parties using the situation to shape their narratives ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [13] - The political impasse is characterized by a lack of trust between parties, with Democrats fearing that without securing healthcare provisions in the funding bill, future negotiations will lack leverage [5][6][13]