可持续航空燃料行业突围之路在何方?

Core Insights - The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry is experiencing significant growth opportunities due to the global carbon neutrality trend, despite facing challenges such as high costs, limited raw material supply, and the need for improved standards [2][3]. Industry Developments - The establishment of the China Sustainable Aviation Fuel Industry Alliance and the launch of the first SAF industry-specific policy in Chengdu highlight the growing support for SAF development [2]. - Recent projects, such as the SAF raw material production and biomass energy research base in Chengdu and the full production of the Anhui Yisheng biodiesel and SAF project, indicate a proactive approach to expanding SAF capabilities [2]. Market Potential - SAF can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 69% to 90% compared to traditional fuels, making it a viable path for the aviation industry's decarbonization [3]. - The demand for SAF in China is projected to reach 1.3 to 1.5 million tons by 2030, accounting for 2% to 3% of aviation fuel demand [4]. Challenges - The high cost of SAF, which is 2 to 7 times that of fossil-based jet fuel, remains the biggest challenge for the industry [5]. - The current production cost of SAF using HEFA technology ranges from 15,000 to 31,000 yuan per ton, significantly higher than traditional jet fuel prices [5]. - The collection rate of waste oils is below 50%, leading to potential raw material supply issues, with only 35,000 tons of SAF capacity currently built compared to 3.28 million tons planned [5]. Strategic Recommendations - Strengthening policy guidance and support at the national level is essential, including the establishment of a sustainable standard certification system and a clear roadmap for carbon reduction in the aviation sector [7]. - Enhancing raw material collection and management systems for waste oils and agricultural residues is crucial for ensuring a stable supply [7]. - Increasing investment in core SAF technology research and promoting collaboration between research institutions and enterprises can improve production efficiency and reduce costs [7][8]. Collaborative Efforts - The SAF industry should focus on establishing a stable supply chain through collaboration among raw material suppliers, producers, and end-users [8]. - The geographical layout of SAF production should consider proximity to raw material sources and consumption areas, particularly in regions like East China and Sichuan-Chongqing [8].