Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent extension of cobalt export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to impact market expectations and inventory depletion, leading to a potential increase in cobalt prices in the medium to long term [1][2] - Liqin Resources (02245) has seen its stock price rise over 50% this month, with a current price of 22.14 HKD and a trading volume of 338 million HKD [1] - The DRC's new cobalt export policy includes an extension of the export suspension until October 15, 2025, along with a subsequent quota system, which may create uncertainty in the allocation of future indicators [1] Group 2 - According to customs data, China's cobalt intermediate imports from June to August were 19,000 tons, 13,800 tons, and 5,200 tons, showing significant declines of 61.62%, 27.26%, and 62.05% respectively [2] - If the DRC's export suspension lasts for seven months, global effective cobalt supply is projected to decrease by 34% from 282,000 tons to 185,000 tons in 2025, with further extensions of the ban potentially exacerbating raw material shortages [2] - In a tightening supply scenario, short-term cobalt prices are expected to continue rising, with strong support for long-term price stability due to the DRC government's clear stance on cobalt supply management [2]
港股异动 | 力勤资源(02245)再涨超4% 钴价远期中枢有较强支撑 机构强调刚果金后续出口指标分配不确定性