黄金冲破3850美元，白银年内涨幅超62%，四季度贵金属仍有上行空间

Core Viewpoint - The potential U.S. government shutdown has heightened market demand for safe-haven assets, leading to significant increases in gold and silver prices, with gold surpassing $3,850 per ounce and silver reaching $47 per ounce, marking their highest levels since 2011 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In Q3 2025, gold prices experienced a strong upward trend, rising from $3,500 to $3,800 per ounce within four weeks, resulting in a 16.6% increase for the quarter and over 46% year-to-date, the largest annual gain since 1979 [2]. - Silver also saw a substantial increase, with a nearly 30% rise in Q3 and a 24.6% increase in the main futures contract [2]. - The gold-silver ratio declined by 8% in Q3, indicating a stronger performance of silver relative to gold [2]. Group 2: Investment Trends - The ongoing rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to increased market risk aversion due to the potential U.S. government shutdown and layoffs, as Congress has yet to pass a short-term funding bill [2]. - The average net asset growth rate for 20 gold ETFs in China is approximately 42.7% this year, with those tracking domestic gold prices averaging 40.5% and those linked to gold stocks achieving an impressive 81% growth [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current bull market for gold and silver has shifted from being driven by metal attributes to monetary attributes, as high global debt levels and a decline in confidence in the U.S. dollar make gold and silver attractive for hedging against currency risks [3]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by structural changes in demand from central banks and institutional investors amid geopolitical risks and diversification needs [4]. - The expectation of a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy and potential economic stagnation further enhances the appeal of gold as a long-term investment [4][5].