绿色创新发展研究院-再生能源行业：我国30省“十五五”可再生能源装机目标提升潜力分析-250930

Core Insights - The high-quality development of renewable energy is crucial for China's energy transition and achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, with significant support from both domestic policies and international agreements [1][2] - As of March 2025, China's renewable energy generation capacity is expected to reach 1.966 billion kilowatts, with wind and solar installations exceeding 1.4 billion kilowatts, ahead of the 2030 target [1][3] - Despite rapid growth in renewable energy installations, challenges remain in resource endowment, existing energy structure, electricity demand, market mechanisms, and consumption capacity [1][3] Provincial Development and Policy Support - By mid-2025, 26 provincial-level regions in China have set renewable energy development targets for 2030, with 18 regions specifying quantitative goals for wind and solar installations totaling 1.256 billion kilowatts [2][3] - Several provinces, including Fujian, Zhejiang, Chongqing, and Anhui, have already exceeded their "14th Five-Year Plan" targets, indicating strong progress [3] Future Projections and Potential - Predictions for renewable energy installations by 2030 range from 2.382 to 4.493 billion kilowatts, with wind and solar capacity expected to be between 1.825 and 2.820 billion kilowatts [3] - The potential for increasing 2030 renewable energy targets is significant, with the capacity possibly reaching over 2.7 times the 2020 levels, and wind and solar installations could exceed 3.7 times the 2020 figures [3] Recommendations for Development - Regions with high electricity demand growth and slow renewable energy generation should enhance their renewable installation and consumption targets [4][5] - Accelerating the construction of new power systems and promoting the deployment of storage and flexible resources are essential for ensuring high proportions of renewable energy consumption [4][5] - Further advancement of a unified national electricity market is recommended to reduce inter-provincial barriers and optimize the planning and management of cross-province electricity transmission [4][5]