英国央行鸽派信号明确 副行长支持进一步降息空间

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Deputy Governor, Dave Ramsden, indicated that the central bank could continue to lower key interest rates while aiming to bring inflation down to the 2% target, suggesting a cautious and gradual approach to monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Bank of England has lowered interest rates five times since August 2024, with a pace of 25 basis points every three months [1] - Ramsden's comments suggest potential support for continuing this trend in the upcoming November meeting [1] - There are concerns among other committee members about stagnant wage growth despite prolonged high interest rates [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - UK inflation has seen a rebound this year, primarily driven by government policy impacts, such as significant increases in water fees [1] - Food prices have also risen rapidly, raising concerns about household sensitivity to price changes following previous surges in 2022 and 2023 [1] - Ramsden noted that inflation expectations have become more sensitive to food price increases [1] Group 3: Currency Market Analysis - The GBP/USD exchange rate has struggled to maintain above the 21-day simple moving average, currently at 1.3509, and has resumed a downward trend [1] - The currency pair has broken below key support levels, including the 100-day moving average at 1.3487 and the 50-day moving average at 1.3468 [1] - If the downward trend continues, the initial support level is at 1.3300, with further potential declines targeting the August 4 low of 1.3254 and the 200-day moving average at 1.3127 [1]