市场库存连续两周回升 焦煤期货价格震荡下行

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coal futures market, particularly coking coal, is experiencing a downward trend with fluctuations, influenced by various macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 30, coking coal futures opened at 1155.5 CNY/ton, with a maximum of 1168.0 CNY and a minimum of 1143.0 CNY, reflecting a decline of 2.18% [1]. - The overall performance of the coking coal market is weak, indicating a bearish sentiment among traders [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand situation for coking coal is showing signs of improvement, with domestic production nearing last year's levels and marginal improvements in supply [2]. - The import volume remains high, and iron production has slightly increased, ensuring raw material demand [2]. - Total inventory continues to rise, with a shift of stock from mines to downstream sectors, suggesting a less tight supply-demand balance [2]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Guantong Futures notes that the market is likely to experience short-term corrections, with a recommendation to hold minimal short positions due to resilient downstream demand [1]. - Ruida Futures highlights the importance of macroeconomic developments, including the upcoming 20th Central Committee meeting, which may influence market sentiment [1]. - Zhonghui Futures emphasizes that while the supply-demand contradiction is not significant in the short term, potential policy disruptions on the supply side cannot be ruled out, leading to an overall range-bound market [2].