南方大豆：陈粮基本出清 新豆即将上市

Core Viewpoint - The southern soybean market is currently clearing old stocks while awaiting the new crop, leading to a stable yet weakening price trend. The upcoming supply increase from the new harvest is expected to exert pressure on prices, but recent rainfall may impact the timing and quality of the new beans, which requires close monitoring [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of September 29, soybean prices in the Huai Bei region of Anhui were stable at 2.65-2.75 yuan per jin, with trade activity subdued as merchants have largely stopped purchasing old stocks [1]. - The demand side remains weak, primarily driven by essential purchases, with little pre-holiday stocking observed as most players await the new crop [1][3]. Group 2: New Crop Insights - New soybeans have started to enter the market in small batches since late September, particularly in regions like Su Bei and Nan Tong, but the overall supply remains insufficient to meet market demand [3]. - Recent concentrated rainfall has delayed the listing of new beans in areas like Henan, with approximately 20% of the new crop reported to have quality issues, such as black spots on the beans [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The overall expectation is for soybean prices in the southern region to remain stable or slightly decline in early October due to the pressure from the new crop supply, although recent rainfall may provide some support to price levels by creating uncertainty around the new crop's quality and timing [3].