澳洲联储如期维持利率不变 警告通胀压力再度抬头

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% following three rate cuts this year, indicating a cautious approach due to stronger-than-expected inflation and economic data [1][2] Economic Indicators - The RBA noted signs of a recovery in private demand and stable labor market conditions, which influenced their decision to keep the cash rate unchanged [1] - Recent data showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose for the second consecutive month in August, reaching the upper limit of the RBA's inflation target range of 2% to 3% [1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in August, reflecting a tight labor market [1] Market Reactions - Following the RBA's decision, the Australian dollar rose to 0.6607 against the US dollar, and the yield on three-year government bonds increased slightly to 3.59% [1] - Traders have reduced their bets on a rate cut in November, with the probability now below 50%, and have fully priced in the next rate cut to occur in May next year instead of February [1] Future Outlook - The RBA is expected to adopt a cautious stance moving forward, with any future easing likely to be implemented gradually [2] - Upcoming economic data, including third-quarter inflation figures and employment reports, will be critical for the RBA's future decisions [1][2] Global Economic Context - International factors such as protectionist policies and geopolitical tensions are contributing to economic uncertainty, although the worst-case scenarios regarding tariffs have not materialized for Australia [2][3]