智通财经网·2025-09-30 07:01Group 1 - UBS maintains a positive outlook on the long-term potential of China's healthcare market, but notes a 64% increase in the pharmaceutical sector this year due to optimistic sentiment from licensing agreements, alongside rising risks from potential U.S. executive orders and high valuations [1] - The focus is expected to shift back to organic revenue/profit growth due to weak fundamentals, leading to downgrades for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group and Kelun Pharmaceutical to "Neutral" [1] - UBS has changed its preferred stock in the industry from 3SBio to Hansoh Pharmaceutical, citing Hansoh's stable traditional business and innovative pipeline reserves [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the forward P/E ratio of Chinese pharmaceutical stocks is above the five-year average, with rising risks from U.S. executive orders shifting market focus back to organic growth [1] - CSPC and Kelun are projected to have the lowest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2024 to 2034, at half the average of 13% for peers like 3SBio, Hansoh, and Innovent Biologics [1] - CSPC's core traditional product NBP, which accounts for 32% of its 2024 finished drug revenue, continues to lose market share, increasing uncertainty due to high reliance on unconfirmed business development revenue [1] - Kelun faces weak demand and intense competition, which may result in the lowest revenue growth among peers by 2025 [1]