Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's initial benchmark interest rate may no longer be appropriate, prompting discussions on replacing it with a more relevant market indicator [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Funds Rate Overview - The federal funds rate has historically been the overnight borrowing rate between banks, influencing various credit costs from credit cards to commercial loans [2]. - Since the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve shifted from setting a precise target for the federal funds rate to a floating range of 0.25 percentage points [2][4]. - The rate now serves more as a signal of the Federal Reserve's economic outlook rather than a direct reflection of interbank borrowing tendencies [3]. Group 2: Role in Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve uses the federal funds rate as a primary tool to manage credit flow into the economy, adjusting it based on employment growth and inflation trends [4]. - Although the rate is not actively used for interbank borrowing, it remains a core signal of the Federal Reserve's policy intentions, influencing other interbank rates and government securities [4]. Group 3: Calls for Change - The liquidity surplus in the banking system, resulting from large-scale bond purchases during the 2008 crisis and the pandemic, has diminished the federal funds rate's influence on overnight borrowing costs [5]. - Concerns have arisen that the federal funds rate is no longer effective in signaling the accumulation of financing pressures within the financial system [5]. Group 4: Alternative Indicators - Dallas Fed President Logan proposed two potential alternative indicators: the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR), with TGCR being favored for its higher trading volume and market resilience [6]. - Other strategists on Wall Street prefer SOFR as a broader overnight market benchmark, although it is influenced by factors beyond the Federal Reserve's control [6]. Group 5: Transitioning the Benchmark Rate - Logan advocates for initiating the process of changing the benchmark rate during stable market conditions to avoid communication and adaptation challenges during market stress [7]. - Analysts from Bank of America suggest that even if the federal funds rate is no longer the core indicator, it will not disappear due to its reference in many financial contracts, indicating a slow transition process that may take at least a year [7].
旧标尺难量新经济 美联储基准利率指标该换了吗？
智通财经网·2025-09-30 07:01